An observational method for determining daily and regional photovoltaic solar energy statistics

This paper presents a classical estimation problem for calculating the energy generated by photovoltaic solar systems, on daily, annual, regional and national basis. Our methodology relies two data sources: PVOutput, an online portal with production measurements, modelled irradiance available large parts of Africa Europe, from Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Combining these, we obtain probability functions observing production, given irradiation. These are applied to PV systems database, using Monte Carlo sampling, allowing daily annual be calculated. are, in turn, used calculate per municipality. As case study, apply this one country particular, namely Netherlands. By examining variation our estimates as result taking different subsets PVOutput certain specifications such azimuth, tilt inverter loading ratio, specific yields range 877-946kWh/kWp 838-899kWh/kWp 2016 2017 respectively. The current method at Statistics assumes 875kWh/kWp, irrespective irradiation, meaning were underestimated overestimated 2017. In Netherlands, research demonstrates that irradiation based measure generation is necessary. More generally, shows types open sources may combined develop models system populations.